Probabilistic analysis of the sacco and vanzetti evidence1 by joseph kadane and david schum and the art of causal conjecture by glenn shafer2 each book proposes its own remarkable synthesis for thinking about and using mathematical probability as i will argue these two syntheses are complementary to each other. 2 a standpoint for our analysis of the sacco and vanzetti evidence 28 21 the importance of declaring standpoint in inference related tasks 29 211 our standpoint for analyzing the sacco and vanzetti evidence 32 22 some thoughts about a historical standpoint 34 221 our legacy from historians 34 222 probability and history 42 223 final thoughts about historical standpoints 46 23 legal . A probabilistic analysis of the sacco and vanzetti evidence holdsparticular interest for statisticians and probabilists in academiaand legal consulting as well as for the legal communityhistorians and behavioral scientists it combines structural andprobabilistic ideas in the analysis of masses of evidence fromevery recognized logical species of evidence twenty eight chartsshow the chains . A probabilistic analysis of the sacco and vanzetti evidence is abayesian analysis of the trial and post trial evidence in the saccoand vanzetti case based on subjectively determined probabilitiesand assumed relationships among evidential events it applies theideas of charting evidence and probabilistic assessment to thiscase which is perhaps the ranking cause celebre in all of americanlegal history modern computation methods applied to inferencenetworks are used to show how the
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